Despite a negative narrative surrounding Microsoft's console and the company reversing a major part of its strategy yesterday, a group of analysts are predicting that the Xbox One will overtake the PS4 install base in North America next year.
Microsoft Announced Kinect-Free Xbox One For $399
The decision to remove Kinect as a mandatory part of every Xbox One sold does represent a change of direction from Microsoft, but one that research groups say will push the console past Sony's successful PS4 in Canada and the United States. Games Industry International spoke with multiple analysts who explained the projected effects of a $399 Xbox One.
"This change will be enough to push the Xbox One installed base higher than PS4 in the U.S. and Canada in 2015 rather than 2016," said IDC research manager Lewis Ward. "It kind of reminds me of Microsoft's evolution on Windows and IE."
Will Removing The Kinect Make Xbox One Processing More Powerful?
"The initial design needs some serious help (i.e., last summer's DRM 'Xbox 180') and then improves to point of being a serious contender (this Kinect unbundling) and then vies for market share dominance (although I continue to believe PS4 will have the largest global installed base of any console at the end of 2016)," he explained.
Other researchers agreed, including RW Baird analyst Colin Sebastian, who noted the historical effect of price cuts on console sales.
"We note the Xbox One pricing action is early, by historical standards, for a relatively new video game console. However, we estimate that price cuts on the Xbox 360 in August 2007 and September 2008 each drove more than 100k incremental monthly unit sales,"
Other groups chimed in as well, which you can read on the page linked above, but the bottom line is that this move by Microsoft is expected to rapidly increase the Xbox One's sales enough to overtake the PS4 in North America. Even though many are pointing out that Microsoft is going back on its word of the Kinect being an "essential" part of the console's experience, you can't blame them much for taking the financially prudent decision.
