The decline in the U.S. retail sales of video games can be reversed only with the introduction of next-generation consoles, industry analyst Michael Pachter believes.
Even the expected Nov. 18 release of Nintendo's Wii U will not be enough to reverse the damage done.
"We expect October - December to be relatively flat, and expect a return to negative territory again next year, at least until the launch of a next-generation console from Microsoft or Sony," said Pachter in a report by GI.biz. "A new console cycle is likely to reverse the negative sales trends of the last several years, with next-generation consoles expected from each of the three manufacturers over the next 18 months. Nintendo will launch the Wii U on November 18, and, while neither Sony nor Microsoft has yet announced new hardware, we expect a PS4 no later than November 2013, and a next Xbox no later than March 2014."
Pachter agreed that competition from social and mobile games has hurt sales of packaged goods over the past three years. However, he feels that it will help expand the console games market in the long run. He also said he expects publishers to address the problem of free online multiplayer with a proper business model by adding premium subscription layers and allowing them to purchase virtual items.
The introduction of new consoles from Microsoft and Sony will usher in a range of new games, since publishers have planned a "big lineup" for consoles, which will eventually help in boosting the sales of video games.
"We believe that the publishers plan an unprecedented number of new games for launch in the first two years of the next generation, providing relief from the gamer fatigue we've seen over the last three years," he said.
