Super Mario Run Expected To Have More Downloads Than Pokemon Go In First Month But With Half The Earnings

By Faye F. , Updated Dec 10, 2016 07:09 AM EST

The highly-anticipated mobile game Super Mario Run looks like to be another hit for Nintendo before it's even out.

Super Mario Run is set to be released on Apple's iOS App Store on December 15 and millions of people are expected to download it. Specifically, the mobile game is expected to hit 50 million downloads alone in its first 30 days, according to app analytics firm Sensor Tower. That's fifty-six percent more than Pokemon Go's estimated 32 million downloads in iOS in its first month.

At $9.99 for the full version, Super Mario Run is set for a record-breaking iOS launch with predicted earnings at $71M for the game's launch countries (which does not include China yet). That will make the game third highest grossing iOS launch of all time.

But while $71M look generous enough, it's only half of what Pokemon Go earned during the same period. Pokemon Go earned $143M from its first month alone as a free-to-play app. It remains to be seen if Super Mario Run's free demo content is enough to convince users to spend $10 for the full version. The conversion of free users will be the thing that might make or break Nintendo's first foray in mobile gaming.

Even without all those estimates, Super Mario Run is historic enough in itself for being the first mobile game from Nintendo. It was developed with input from Nintendo legend Shigeru Miyamoto, and the first of several planned titles for mobile, marking a shift in the company's business model as Nintendo is known for its long-standing resistance against developing any of its games for non-Nintendo consoles.

If successful, Super Mario Run can be the beginning of a new change in Nintendo and help them diversify their revenue.

Check the first four levels of the Super Mario run game here:

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